Is the Ghawar Oilfield Running Out of Oil

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Is the Ghawar Oilfield Running Out of Oil

Author: Matthew Paolini | Total views: 57 | Word Count: 515 | Category: Science | Date: Jun 20th 2007

Search for: Ghawar, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Aramco, depletion, Peak Oil

Acknowledging that the world's oil supply is rapidly being depleted seems to be something that leading politicians and industry executives simply won't do.

However, more and more expert commentators feel that this indeed might be the case. Those who feel this way point to the state of affairs in Saudi Arabia, the top oil producer for the past 30 years, or so. It has been rumored for years that its largest oil field, Ghawar, is in permanent decline.

For those who don't know much about Ghawar, it is by far the biggest conventional oil field in the world, measuring an estimated 175 miles by 20 miles. Currently, some say that the field produces between 4.5 and 5 million barrels of oil per day by outside observers, which is over six percent of global production. The officially stated maximum sustained crude production capacity is 8.5 million barrels per day, though actual daily output is a closely-guarded state secret. Thus far, approximately 60 billion barrels have been pumped out of Ghawar since production began back in 1951.

Ghawar's total proven reserves, also known as 'recoverable' oil, still left in the ground, have been pegged at just over 70 billion barrels by Saudi Aramco, the nationalized oil company which is the largest of its type in the world. The word 'recoverable' is particularly important, as the total amount of oil in the ground is of lesser importance than the amount that can easily be removed at a given level of extractive technology. While modern techniques can certainly boost the amount of oil that can be extracted per oil field, the question of how expensive the operation turns out to be remains extremely pertinent. Once oil extraction becomes too difficult, and therefore expensive, it becomes economically infeasible to attempt to remove the remaining supply.

Saudi Arabia comes under particular scrutiny because of its importance in the world oil markets. It has long been known as the world's biggest producer of oil, and has acted as a 'swing producer,' regulating oil extraction rates to balance to the worldwide market in concert with the other nations in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

A number of worrying signs clearly indicate that Ghawar might be in permanent decline. Early in 2006, a Saudi Aramco spokesman made the stunning admission that its first discovered fields are now declining at a rate of 8 percent per year. The direct implication is that Ghawar is past its 'peak' of production. The spokesman continued that steps were being taken to offset the decline, but that the only viable solution to declining crude oil supplies is to locate new fields, and it has been documented that discoveries have not kept pace with skyrocketing widespread demand.

If Ghawar is indeed in decline, it likely means that the overall production around the world is as well. Of the 'super-giant' oil fields, four are officially in decline: China's Daquing, Mexico's Cantarell; Russia's Samotlor; and Kuwait's Burgan. Though Ghawar has not officially been so declared, one can infer as much, from the available facts.

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Matthew Paolini is Citybook.com's technical director for the Minneapolis, MN online Yellow Pages division.

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Acknowledging that the world's oil supply is rapidly being depleted seems to be something that leading politicians and industry executives simply won't do. 
 
However, more and more expert commentators feel that this indeed might be the case. Those who feel this way point to the state of affairs in Saudi Arabia, the top oil producer for the past 30 years, or so. It has been rumored for years that its largest oil field, Ghawar, is in permanent decline. 
 
For those who don't know much about Ghawar, it is by far the biggest conventional oil field in the world, measuring an estimated 175 miles by 20 miles. Currently, some say that the field produces between 4.5 and 5 million barrels of oil per day by outside observers, which is over six percent of global production. The officially stated maximum sustained crude production capacity is 8.5 million barrels per day, though actual daily output is a closely-guarded state secret. Thus far, approximately 60 billion barrels have been pumped out of Ghawar since production began back in 1951. 
 
Ghawar's total proven reserves, also known as 'recoverable' oil, still left in the ground, have been pegged at just over 70 billion barrels by Saudi Aramco, the nationalized oil company which is the largest of its type in the world. The word 'recoverable' is particularly important, as the total amount of oil in the ground is of lesser importance than the amount that can easily be removed at a given level of extractive technology. While modern techniques can certainly boost the amount of oil that can be extracted per oil field, the question of how expensive the operation turns out to be remains extremely pertinent. Once oil extraction becomes too difficult, and therefore expensive, it becomes economically infeasible to attempt to remove the remaining supply. 
 
Saudi Arabia comes under particular scrutiny because of its importance in the world oil markets. It has long been known as the world's biggest producer of oil, and has acted as a 'swing producer,' regulating oil extraction rates to balance to the worldwide market in concert with the other nations in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). 
 
A number of worrying signs clearly indicate that Ghawar might be in permanent decline. Early in 2006, a Saudi Aramco spokesman made the stunning admission that its first discovered fields are now declining at a rate of 8 percent per year. The direct implication is that Ghawar is past its 'peak' of production. The spokesman continued that steps were being taken to offset the decline, but that the only viable solution to declining crude oil supplies is to locate new fields, and it has been documented that discoveries have not kept pace with skyrocketing widespread demand. 
 
If Ghawar is indeed in decline, it likely means that the overall production around the world is as well. Of the 'super-giant' oil fields, four are officially in decline: China's Daquing, Mexico's Cantarell; Russia's Samotlor; and Kuwait's Burgan. Though Ghawar has not officially been so declared, one can infer as much, from the available facts. Article Source: <a href="http://www.articlesoft.com" target="_blank">ArticleSoft.com</a> About the Author: Matthew Paolini is <a href="http://www.citybook.com/">Citybook.com's</a> technical director for the <a href="http://www.citybook.com/minnesota/minneapolis/categories-13975.htm">Minneapolis, MN online Yellow Pages</a> division.

Tags: Ghawar, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Aramco, depletion, Peak Oil